Putin has no idea what to do next and apparently that's a good thing

We know one thing for sure as a result of Vladimir Putin's press conference¹: Never have so many people been so relieved by one man's confusion. The markets are rebounding on the news that he has no idea what to do next. Huzzah.

Vlad the Short-Fingered Barbarian made it abundantly clear that: A) He has a very good grasp of local and international politics; and B) Despite that he has not a clue what to do now that he has invaded. To be clear, Our Vlad didn't admit he had invaded – he is still keeping to the line that all those camouflaged men armed with Russian Army weapons are merely locals seeking to defend themselves.

“We have not participated in the preparation of self-defense forces in Ukraine.”

Locals with self-propelled artillery – wouldn't the NRA be proud!

The only thing the Big Red Machine had done was reinforced the defense of its facilities in Crimea.² Using 16,000+ soldiers just to make sure no one was messing with an already heavily armed naval base is plausible if you remember overkill has always been a staple of Russian culture, just look at Stalin's purges.

Sadly propaganda doesn't work as well as it used to. The New York Times reports that a suspicious number of the Ukrainians demanding Russia come to their aid are “tourists visiting” from the Motherland itself. Who can blame them? If forced to choose between a nation on the brink of a war and Disney World I, for one, would be on the next plane to Sevastopol.

Vlad also said, "Our major concern is the orgy of nationalists, and extremists and anti-Semites on the streets of Kiev."³ Probably because people would wonder why they aren't in Moscow as usual.

President P did do a fine job skewering the hypocrisy of a certain last-remaining-superpower, which questioned his right to invade Ukraine – even though he didn't (wink wink).

“We are often accused of illegitimacy of our actions. And when I ask, and you are all legitimate? They say yes. To remind them about the U.S. actions in Iraq, Libya and other countries.”⁴

Unfortunately, just as with those misadventures, it is becoming clear the Russians don't have any idea what to do now that they are there. Putin says ousted Ukrainian President Yanukovych is still president sort of but that he soon won't be. Putin also said he won't recognize the winner of the election scheduled for May 25 unless it's someone approve of. In this he makes it clear he is following the advice of the brilliant political scientist Mr. Tom Lehrer:

For might makes right
Until they've seen the light
They've got to be protected
All their rights respected
'Till somebody we like can be elected

It could have been worse. He could have done like Bush and listened to Randy Newman's suggestion.

1: Google Translate does a surprisingly good job with Russian-to-English.

2: For some reason the bare-chested one doesn't have a lot of people around to point out when he contradicts himself. Maybe it's his breath.

3: Mark MacKinnon, the senior international correspondent for The Globe and Mail, did a great live tweet of the presser and I guarantee you I am one of the few who will admit cribbing from him.

4: John Kerry: "You just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext.” Words fail.

Feeling nervous? Spike Milligan explains what to do while waiting for the war to begin.

"September 3rd, 1939. The last minutes of peace ticking away. Father and I were watching Mother digging our air-raid shelter. “She’s a great little woman,” said Father. “And getting smaller all the time,” I added. Two minutes later, a man called Chamberlain who did Prime Minister impressions spoke on the wireless; he said, “As from eleven o’clock we are at war with Germany.” (I loved the WE.) “War?” said Mother. “It must have been something we said,” said Father. The people next door panicked, burnt their post-office books and took in the washing."

-- Spike Milligan, Hitler, My Part in His Downfall

The one thing to remember about news from the Ukraine

"Great part of the information obtained in war is contradictory, a still greater part is false, and by far the greatest part is of a doubtful character. ... In a few words, most reports are false, and the timidity of men acts as a multiplier of lies and untruths. As a general rule every one is more inclined to lend credence to the bad than the good."

-- Carl von Clausewitz, On War 

Afghani president stands on the runway, waves U.S. troops goodbye

The U.S., which currently has troops in so many different nations it's a wonder we haven't gone to war with ourselves, wants our Afghani friends to know we aren't bluffing about taking all our troops home:

Statements by the White House and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel showed President Barack Obama's impatience with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai's refusal to sign the agreement that would keep several thousand American troops in the country after combat operations conclude this year.¹

The agreement in question would put our troops outside the jurisdiction of what can laughingly be described as the Afghanistan legal system. The White House is confused about Mr. Karzai's intransigence on the issue. It is a simple pact, much like the ones we have with other hundred or so governments currently playing host to our troops and it has mostly worked out fine for them.

It's almost as if President Karzai believes the 3,000 U.S. troops wouldn't be enough to keep him in² power but would be enough to piss off large parts of various heavily armed constituencies. Go figure.³

That's the thanks we get after shoving Karzai into the presidency and giving him wooden pallets loaded with millions of dollars in cash that we didn't keep track of. Don't you hate it when people won't stay bought?

The fascinating thing is we are still hoping he will sign the damn thing even though he just let 65 Taliban prisoners walk out of jail despite our pleas. (Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren says this constitutes a “major step backward” in Afghanistan’s “rule of law.” He even said it with a straight face.) Because of all this Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-The Secession State) is threatening to cut off all U.S. developmental aid until after the Afghani election in early April. Given how much of our money President Karzai is currently sitting on this isn't really much of a threat. The good president is theoretically barred by law from running again, so if anything he is thinking of his post-presidential legacy of staying alive.

While we're on the topic of wishful thinking,Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, predicted a grim future for Afghanistan if U.S. troops leave. His comments came in the wake of a warning from the Pakistan government⁴ (or at least the portion we've paid off today) that withdrawing U.S. troops will lead to civil war. To both of these sage pieces of advice the people of Afghanistan can only say, "And this would be different ... how?"

All of this is the result of the kind of magical thinking that pervades the top levels of U.S. foreign policy. Speaking a thing does not make it so.Our inability to see things from the vassal state's point of view is probably the only constant in our dealings with the rest of the world.

1: Baghdad has been hit by wave after wave of bombings since April as the precarious peace enjoyed since the end of Iraq's sectarian war in 2008 has unraveled." --Reuters

2: Just like Michael Bloomberg.

3: "If they are concerned about training and enhancing the Afghan military forces, they could have done it in the past 12 years. ... If they think the presence of 3,000 troops is enough to enhance Afghan forces – that doesn't make sense. It’s very likely that they may have these 3,000 troops only for intelligence purposes, for a larger agenda that they have at hand, maybe [concerning] Russia, China, or some other purpose." --Mohammed Daud Miraki, ultra-nationalist Afghan activist and writer.

4: How do you say “mendacious” in Punjabi?